A formation that is no longer a promise

Vaca Muerta has left the “potential” category behind to become Argentina’s most dynamic energy reality. The unconventional hydrocarbon formation located in the Neuquén Basin —30,000 km² spanning mainly the province of Neuquén— today accounts for close to 70% of the oil the country produces and has established itself as the most significant shale play outside North America.

The figures of the latest cycle confirm it. Oil production took Neuquén above 600,000 barrels per day for the first time in early 2026, and shale already explains close to 80% of the gas extracted in the province. The unconventional industry closed 2025 with 23,896 fracturing stages —a 34% year-on-year increase— and projects to exceed 28,000 during 2026.

For a business owner or an investor, the relevant data point is not only the current magnitude but the trajectory: less than 10% of Vaca Muerta’s surface has been developed, its breakeven cost is globally competitive, and the entry window remains open.

What Vaca Muerta is and why it matters

Vaca Muerta is a Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous marl lying at a depth of around 2,900 meters. Its scale is exceptional: Argentina holds the world’s second-largest shale gas reserves and the fourth-largest shale oil reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The transformation of recent years has been regulatory as much as geological. Three changes reshaped the basin’s appeal: the normalization of the foreign exchange regime in 2025, the enactment of the RIGI (Incentive Regime for Large Investments) and progress on evacuation infrastructure, led by the Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipeline. Together they turned the basin from an asset that was hard to monetize into an export platform.

The growth outlook: what the numbers say

Projections from official bodies and the sector’s leading consultancies converge on a scenario of sustained expansion.

Oil production

According to a report by the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR), Argentina could produce 54.5 million m³ of crude in 2026 —a 16% increase over 2025— and surpass the historical record of 1998. Rystad Energy projects that Vaca Muerta shale oil output will exceed one million barrels per day by 2030. Deloitte estimates capacity of up to 1.5 million barrels per day by that date.

Exports and foreign currency

The energy sector has become a net generator of foreign currency: the net contribution reached USD 9.214 billion in 2025, the highest value in the series. PwC Argentina projects that the large-scale development of Vaca Muerta could take the sector’s surplus to more than USD 30 billion a year by 2030, displacing agriculture as the country’s main source of foreign currency.

Investment and financing

Upstream investment in South America reached its highest level since 2015 and Rystad projects it at close to USD 50 billion a year for the region. In Argentina, financing is keeping pace: corporate debt issuances led by the energy sector set successive records in the local capital market.

Liquefied natural gas

The LNG segment is the largest-scale bet. The projects under way and under evaluation —Southern Energy, Argentina LNG, FLNG initiatives— target export capacity that could approach 25–30 million tonnes a year by 2032, positioning Argentina as an emerging global supplier.

Where the opportunities are

The basin’s growth opens business fronts across the entire value chain, not only in the upstream.

The RIGI: the tool that changed the equation

The Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) is the instrument that reordered the investment decision. It offers 30 years of regulatory stability, a reduced income tax rate, customs exemptions, progressive access to free availability of foreign currency, and the possibility of resorting to international arbitration.

Its effect is visible: to date there are more than a dozen approved projects —several in Vaca Muerta— and a pipeline under evaluation that, taken together, comfortably exceeds USD 90 billion. The regime was extended and broadened by Decree 105/2026 to include onshore hydrocarbon exploitation and production, which opened the door to large-scale upstream projects.

What an investor should bear in mind

Vaca Muerta’s appeal is real, but entry demands preparation. The basin rewards those who arrive with a genuine local structure, specialized advice and a long-term horizon. The challenges to consider include evacuation infrastructure still under development, a cost structure higher than that of North American plays, a demanding labor framework, and a macroeconomy that, although stabilizing, retains volatility.

Vaca Muerta is a 10–20 year play. The companies that have prospered share a pattern: a solid local partner or structure, sustained investment through the cycles, and the strategic patience the country has always demanded. For those who prepare rigorously, the window remains open.

The team behind the Vaca Muerta Desk

A boutique law firm, an accounting firm and our own office in Añelo: a 360° practice to support companies and investors in the Neuquén Basin. Entering and operating successfully requires a comprehensive response —legal, accounting, regulatory and strategic— with a real presence on the ground.